Our perspective on the metro Phoenix housing market …..

 We suspect many of you, like us, are regular readers and commenters on LinkedIn and find informative and engaging commentaries on the overall national housing marketplace.

 Most of the information presented is on a national or broader regional basis. We are regularly struck by how dissimilar the data presented is to what is happening here in the metro Phoenix or Tucson marketplaces.

 Likewise, the conclusions reached by many of the presenters are contrary to our analysis of data pertinent to our local marketplaces or our expectations for the future of those marketplaces.

 Certainly, this does not disparage the conclusions commenters reach and present, but it does regularly point out that our local marketplaces do not necessarily walk to the same drummers of Florida, Texas, California, or other housing markets.

 Fortunately for our efforts, our most astute Phoenix and Tucson market observers are aware of that and take advantage of the kind of information that we regularly generate through our own data research and analysis efforts for our local markets.

 Not only can that local data and analysis be necessary for the local management by our housing market operatives, but it can also allow them to give an enlightened local perspective to those decision-makers more familiar with non-local markets where they may be headquartered or have extensive experience.

The Phoenix and Tucson housing markets do not walk to the same drummers nor have the same data drivers as other markets, and if remote decision-makers do not have the opportunity for Phoenix-Tucson data and perspective, their outlook of opportunity may shortchange local builders and developers.

 Costs? The costs of local data and analysis are inconsequential compared to the potential opportunity that can be available in the Phoenix or Tucson marketplaces.

 Go to www.rlbrownreports.com and click on the MAGIC PROFESSIONAL TAB at the top of the page to see all the data fields and the prices that can enlighten those home office decision-makers.

 To that end, Jim and I have reinstituted the opportunity for a limited number of our clients to engage us to perform local-area market analysis and feasibility reports specifically for targeted opportunities for our clients. Call us at 623-341-1127 for additional information, prices, and scheduling. These services can be available as time permits. The market data for these reports will be drawn from Magic Pro analysis written by RL Brown for Phoenix and Jim Daniel for Tucson.

In summary, we anticipate that both the metro Phoenix and Tucson housing markets will continue to be driven by the strong demand for housing we are experiencing, generated by the localized economy, job creation, and climate.

Builders who can effectively produce new housing priced in the mid-$300,000 range will find solid demand in most geographic areas of the region. Builders who can produce new housing priced below that range and be competitive with the BFR products growing in favor in both Phoenix and Tucson can expect a strong response for a properly conceived product.

We expect additional major national homebuilders to enter the BFR market in both Phoenix and Tucson as 2024 plays out. Most will be seeking buyouts for those projects down the road to avoid the cost and headaches of managing rental properties, essentially remaining in the role of “the builders” and not as landlords.

There will no doubt be fallout from regional political and military conflict and political disruption, but we remain optimistic for a strong and profitable housing market opportunity for both Phoenix and for Tucson. Expect it to become even more competitive in the months ahead and require solid product and positioning to excel. A haphazard approach to product, positioning, and location will shortchange the opportunity for the unprepared or those not armed with authoritative local information.

Market observers and participants who desire additional analysis based on complete and current data are encouraged to join us for a Zoom demonstration of our Magic Professional housing data application and a full description of the data analysis and tools available through that subscription. It has current and real and complete data and a full suite of analysis tools at a reasonable price. Plus, it is accessible to all of your associates. A comprehensive application description, including subscription prices, is available at www.rlbrownreports.com. Click on the Magic Professional tab at the top of that page. Or, call us at 623-341-1127 to schedule a demo.

 Jim Daniel and RL Brown

602-327-6989

rlbrownreports@gmail.com

 

PS:  If you need a one-off piece of data or analysis, give us a call. We may be able to accommodate your needs!

 

https://sway.office.com/s/WCxqx1qzddhUWku7

Below are some images from our past market letters and LinkedIn posts of market data and land sales that occurred in the Phoenix and Tucson markets in the past.  The latest data and perspective is published each month in the Phoenix and Tucson housing market letters and in Magic Pro.  

To stay up-to-date and get current information you need subscriptions to the market letters and to follow us on LinkedIn.  Copy and paste this link into your browser.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/rl-brown-housing-reports-349416168/

 

 

Top-performing homebuilders in metro Phoenix in 2020 .... from the DataSum Report in Magic Pro Vol 435 .... a complete listing of every builder and subdivisions performance for permits and closings is available in the latest monthly edition of Magic Pro and is updated each month.

Recent major employment announcements for metro Phoenix, and how they relate geographically to today's housing market

 

A sample of an auto-generated ABSORPTION REPORT for a master plan, a group of subdivisions, or a builder that can be generated in Magic Pro with just 3 or 4 mouse clicks.  You choose the area, the master plan, the builder, etc.

 

 

Land and Lot Sales density in metro Phoenix for 2020 - from the Land and Lot Sales dataset in Magic Pro .... the latest updates are in Magic Pro  A similar analysis can be generated using the latest month's land and lot sales data.  Select the parameters and click on the Heat Map button and the image is auto-generated.

 

 

New plats filed in Tucson with no permits issued yet = the next wave of new home subdivisions - from the Tucson Land Sales dataset and also available for Phoenix

 

Lennar-Blandford Land Buy.... a graphic created from data in a recent Land and Lot Sales dataset entry.

 

Where the new home permit activity was by submarket in 2020 - from the Sales and Permit dataset.  The data is completely updated every month and available in Magic Pro or in our Phoenix and Tucson Housing Market Letters.  

 

Month by month comparison of new home permits in Tucson - from the Tucson Sales and Permit dataset.  Also available for Phoenix, updated every month in our Phoenix and Tucson Housing Market Letters.

 

A Pulte Homes Scottsdale land buy ......

 

From the Tucson Sales and Permit Dataset. This data is updated every month.

 

 

 

From the Phoenix Sales and Permit Dataset.  This data is updated every month.

 

 

 

Helpful Hints For Magic Pro users -An explanation of the Magic Pro main screen

 

 Sun Valley major land deal from the Land and Lot Sales Report.  Typical of the way our monthly updated land data can be utilized.

 

 

January 2021 land and lot sales concentrations - From the Phoenix Land and Lot Dataset. This data is updated every month.

 

For more land buys and market analysis posts from our Market Letters, special reports, and LinkedIn posts you can see our archived posts on LinkedIn by becoming friends on LinkedIn with Jim Daniel and/or RL Brown ... or better yet, become a subscriber to MAGIC PRO where ALL OF THE MARKET DATA IS AVAILABLE, and updated every month.

Follow RL Brown and Jim Daniel and RL Brown Reports on LinkedIn where we post regular updates of market data and major land deals for both Phoenix and Tucson.Copy and paste these links into your browser.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jim-daniel-b712698/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/rl-brown-housing-reports-349416168/